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Most recreational bettors on the Super Bowl won’t even factor the forecast into the equation. They’ll just bet the over because it’s the Super Bowl and it’s Tom Brady and it’s Patrick Mahomes and because of all of the wide receivers and the talent on the field. That equation converts to 26.67% as the implied winning probability for the Dolphins. If the implied probability is below 50%, the calculation is adjusted a little. This depends on whether the implied probability is above 50% or below. (mais…)

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